This is a little widget I’ve made that graphs a Monte Carlo Simulation for a hypothetical series of equal bets i.e. the stake size doesn’t increase as your betting balance increases or decreases. It displays the profit against the number of bets. The profit is displayed in ‘units’ i.e. your stake size. As an example if the graph displays a profit of 30 and your stake size is £2 then the profit in £s is £60. The inputs are:
Probability: This is the chance of a bet winning expressed in decimal form. Example: 0.5 for heads in a coin flip or 0.027 for a single number roulette bet.
Payout: This is the profit if the bet wins. Example: If a bet has decimal odds of 3.00 (fractional odds of 2/1) then input ‘2’.
Trials: This is the number of simulations to be run. They are each plotted as a separate line on the graph.
Bets per Trial: This is the number of bets per simulation.
Feel free to have fun playing around with the tool. Some interesting points to note are that the fewer the number of bets per trial and the smaller the edge (whether postitive or negative) the more random the profit will be. This should hopefully give you a guide to decide whether or not your betting strategy might be profitable. If your edge is small or non-existant then you will need to collect more data and you will be subject to more wild swings in profit/loss.
Please note that if you input large values e.g. 10000 bets with 8 trials it will likely cause your browser to crash. See my article How Unlucky Am I? if you’d like to make your own bet simulations that won’t be bound by the limits of your browser or the constraints I’ve hard coded.